Watch out for: We track how the pandemic spread across India for around 2000 cases which have been mapped (https://github.com/covid19india/api) to known sources. We draw a link between the source where the patient contracted the virus to the destination where the patient was diagnosed.
Travel History
Italian tourists in Rajasthan
Iran evacuees
Family member
Delhi Religious conference
Mysuru Pharma company
We observe how the pandemic spread in India.
The initial cases were almost exclusively tied to international travel history, the striking connection between Middle East and Kerala is also why the state was India's epicenter in the beginning.
Cases related to Delhi's religious conference can be seen around early April, Tamil Nadu in particular being affected the most.
In the recent weeks, we see more and more cases being contracted from family members or other close contacts.
This graphic just shows around 2000 cases which have been mapped to known sources, but what it does illustrate is the effect of strict lockdown enforced in the country, without which with people moving freely across the country, we could have expected the entire country filled with criss crossed lines.
The Italian tourist group, evacuees from Iran, Mysuru Pharma company, are the other noticeable cluster groups.
List of Prominent Clusters
Watch out for: This is the list of around 2000 cases which have been mapped to known sources by the team at https://github.com/covid19india/api. Note that the numbers here are clearly underestimated and not exhaustive at all since only a small portion of the total confirmed cases have been mapped. But the list does provide an insight into the prominent clusters in India.
Cases Connected to
Number of Cases
Tracing the spread of virus
Watch out for: This animation shows the spread of outbreak across India over time. For every 20 cases, one random case is shown as a dot. The dots are color-coded as
Confirmed case
Recovered
Deceased
Key takeaways:
Clearly the cases are mostly concentrated in India's metropolitan cities. With the lockdown being relaxed, it is vital to monitor that more clusters do not break out in India's vast rural areas.
Which states are the most affected ?
How to read the graph ?: States are represented as streams of different colors, the width of the stream depends on the number of cases in that state. This chart helps in interpreting the proportion of cases contributed by various states to India's total count.
Which States are Flattening the Curve ?
Watch out for: The graph shows the case count of all the states over time. Flatter the curves, slower is the growth rate of cases.
Current doubling time (in days)
Key takeaways:
Lot of states including Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh have their curves pointing upward indicating a worrying trend of higher growth rate.
States like Kerala and Goa have flattened the curves significantly over the past weeks.
State wise Case Count
State Testing Rate
How to read the graph: The number of tests per million people are plotted against the number of days to double case count for individual states. Ideally the state circles should lie on the upper right side of this chart with high testing rate and low case growth rate. On the other hand, states with poor testing rate and high case growth rate will lie on lower left corner. States are colored based on death count with darker shades indicating more deaths.
Key takeaways:
Cases are doubling quickly in West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh despite having poor testing rates. This potentially implies that the true case count could be much higher and can only be revealed with increased testing.
Cases are doubling quickly in Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Delhi even with reasonable testing rates. This strongly suggests that the number of cases will continue to rise for at least few more weeks and we may still be quite far from reaching the peak.
State Recovery Rates
Watch out for: Each column is a state color coded by recovery rate defined as ratio of total number of recovered people to total confirmed cases. Red is where there are lot more new cases than recoveries and green the other way around. So root for all the states to turn green soon.
Key takeaways:
Notice how Kerala (KL) and Goa (GA) have been turning green indicating more recoveries. States like Madhya Pradesh (MP), Gujarat (GJ), Maharashtra (MH) are showing worrying trend by consistently staying red.
Even more worrying is the case of Tamil Nadu which is starting to turn red after having earlier shown signs of turning green.
How fast are cases doubling in states ?
Watch out for: Shows the number of days it takes to double case count in major states. Root for these to go higher. States with curves pointing downwards are where cases are rising fast.
Key takeaways:
Lot of states seemed to have increased doubling time significantly in mid-April but this positive trend is no longer continued towards end of April. This is especially true for Tamil Nadu and Karnataka.
States like West Bengal, Gujarat, Bihar are particularly showing very low doubling time.
Maharashtra and Delhi in particular are the most concerning states with the doubling time not increasing even with very high number of cases already registered. This may suggest that these states are still quite far from reaching their peak.
On the positive note, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh seem to be increasing their doubling time in recent days.
Top Hotspot Districts
Click on table headers to sort the table by cases, deaths, growth rate.
District
Cases
Cases Per Million
Deaths
Case Growth Rate (%)
Growth Rate Visualised
Daily Growth Rate of Cases
Watch out for: Ideally growth rates should go to zero. Seemingly low daily growth rate such as 20 percent is still significant with case count doubling in less than four days.
Key takeaways:
Districts in Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra are showing worrying trends of very high case growth rates.
On the other hand, districts in Kerala, Telangana seem to be doing well over past few weeks.
New Cases per 100,000 people
How to read this graph: Shows district case count per 100,000 people over last two weeks. Districts with curves pointing upward are the emerging hotspots.
Key takeaways:
Districts in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat are showing worrying upward trends.
Hotspots Map
How to use the map: Drag the sliders to identify hotspot districts based on case count, case density, case growth rate criteria.
Case count
Case per million
Case growth rate
Outbreak free Districts
Watch out for: Observe how the virus is rapidly spreading across India's districts. Notice how after being largely limited to major cities until recently, the virus is now rapidly spreading to India's vast rural areas.
How is India faring against other countries ?
Watch out for: The graph shows the number of cases in different countries over time. Watch out for the steepness of the curves, more flat the curve, slower is the growth rate of cases.
India
Asia
Europe
Americas
Key takeaways
India's curve is nestled between those of Asian and European nations. Watch out for the steepness of the curve in the coming weeks as the lockdown is relaxed
Countries like Austria, South Korea have flattened their curves significantly
The cases of Japan and Singapore shows that this is going to be a long battle with the curves getting steeper after having flattened earlier.
Is India testing enough ?
Watch out for: The graph shows the testing rate compared with the cases per million people in different countries. Ideally countries should lie lower more towards right side of this graph.
India
Asia
Europe
Americas
Key takeaways
India'a cases per million is very low but at the same time, its testing rate is abysmally low comparable to other high populous countries such as Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico. Testing more may increase India'a case count significantly.
Israel, Austria, Germany, Singapore, South Korea have contained the virus to large extent by deploying large number of tests.